Eli Lilly (LLY) reports Q1 2026 results today before market open. Revenue has grown every quarter for three years running. The stock has dropped 23% since its all-time high of $1,133, reached in January 2026.
Financial disclaimer: The scores and analysis in this article are for informational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes a buy or sell recommendation. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.
LLY's Q1 2026 results in numbers
Wall Street expects around $6.90 EPS and $17.6B in revenue for Q1, representing 37% year-over-year growth. That's a step down from 43% in Q4 2025 but still one of the strongest rates in large-cap pharma.
Mounjaro and Zepbound are carrying the business. Mounjaro generated $7.4B last quarter, up 110% year-over-year. Zepbound added $4.2B, up 123%. Combined, the pair drove $36.5B in full-year 2025 revenue. LLY holds roughly 59% of weekly new GLP-1 prescriptions in the US, a share Novo Nordisk (NVO) hasn't closed despite launching its own oral obesity pill in January.
Pricing is the overhang. Lilly's CFO flagged a low-to-mid teen percentage drag on revenue from lower realized prices through 2026. Volume is currently winning that fight. The market isn't fully convinced it stays that way.
What the Stoxcraft data says about LLY
LLY earns an overall rating of 4.5 stars, placing it among the most highly rated stocks in the entire Stoxcraft universe. Two individual scores are telling opposite stories right now, and understanding which one is right is the whole argument.
Health and performance: the fundamental case
The Health Score of 8.2 out of 10 places Lilly in the top 10% of all Health Care stocks tracked. The biggest driver is exceptional free cash flow generation, which positions Lilly above the vast majority of global pharmaceutical peers.
The Performance Score of 8.7 reflects a stock that has more than quadrupled over five years. The recent pullback has dented the shorter-term picture. Over a three- to five-year window, LLY still outranks roughly 85% of all stocks in the Stoxcraft universe.
Trend signal and where the entry argument stands
The TrendMeter sits at 3.4 out of 10 with a double downward arrow. RSI is in oversold territory. The short-term technical setup is clearly bearish and has not shown a confirmed reversal.
The BuyMeter sits at 6.8 out of 10 and classifies LLY as a Buy. The 23% discount from the January high and strong analyst consensus targets give the model enough room to call this an attractive entry, even with momentum working against it.
Scores are quantitative indicators derived from FMP data - not buy or sell signals.
LLY vs. the Health Care sector
LLY outperforms the sector on every fundamental metric Stoxcraft tracks. Its Health and Performance Scores are both top-decile across the roughly 3,900-stock comparison universe. Novo Nordisk (NVO), the closest GLP-1 comparable, sits at the opposite end of the 2026 momentum spectrum. Its guidance points to a revenue decline this year while Lilly is targeting 25% growth at the midpoint of its $80-83B range.
The score pattern LLY fits right now
This setup is a Quality Compounder with a Value Trap Warning flag attached. A high Health Score paired with a broken short-term trend is the exact combination that forces the hardest investor question: is the 23% pullback a discount, or a sign that the market is repricing the business structurally?
The BuyMeter currently says discount. That signal is timing-sensitive. Lilly needs to hold its $80-83B full-year guidance today to keep it credible.
Mounjaro vs. the market's fear: what today's print decides
The bull case holds as long as volume keeps beating price compression. Lilly's oral pill Foundayo, launched in April, recorded just 3,707 prescriptions in its second week against 18,410 for Novo's oral Wegovy at the same stage. That gap is real but it's also too early to call. Foundayo launched three months behind oral Wegovy.
The injectable franchise is what carries today's print. If Mounjaro and Zepbound clear $17.6B and guidance holds, the Quality Compounder case wins. If either breaks, watch the trend confirm before acting.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Stoxcraft scores are quantitative indicators based on Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) data. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in stocks involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
