Metrics feed into the three Core Scores: Health, Performance, and Risk
Three core scores
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ASML is the only company on Earth that manufactures extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines at scale. Every advanced chip from TSMC, Samsung, and Intel runs through its equipment. That monopoly should translate into stock dominance. It hasn't. Wednesday's Q2 2026 earnings report, before market open, will force investors to decide whether the gap with peers is a buying opportunity or a warning sign.
ASML's Q2 2026 numbers: what to expect
Q2 guidance landed at €8.4B to €9.0B in revenue, with EPS around $8.02 to $8.67. The wide range is real: US export restrictions on advanced EUV systems to China cut directly into the highest-margin part of the business. Full-year 2026 target sits at €36B to €40B.
The growth trajectory isn't in doubt. Annual revenue has climbed from roughly €14B five years ago to over €28B today. But the market isn't asking whether ASML is growing. It's asking whether the valuation holds when cheaper, faster-moving peers are putting up bigger numbers.
ASML trades at a P/E ratio of 35.3x. KLA Corporation (KLAC) is at 29.3x, Lam Research (LRCX) at 23.4x, Applied Materials (AMAT) at 26.6x. The monopoly carries a premium. Whether Wednesday's guidance justifies it is the actual question on the table.
Why semiconductor equipment stocks are beating the monopoly holder
The 1-year return gap is hard to ignore. ASML is up +120%. That sounds strong until you clock the peers: Lam Research is up +247%, Applied Materials +202%, KLA Corporation +150%.
None of those three have a monopoly. They compete directly against each other. Yet they've all returned more to shareholders over the past year. The most straightforward read: their earnings growth hit earlier in the cycle, while ASML's EUV demand is weighted toward 2025 and 2026 delivery windows. The setup is backloaded.
The contradiction embedded in ASML's score profile
Here's what makes this more than a simple underperformance story. ASML's Performance Score of 8.6/10 doesn't reflect one good quarter. It reflects a multi-year track record across the full Stoxcraft universe, a 3-year return of +135% and 5-year return of +148% that have consistently outrun most of the market. Recent momentum has tilted toward peers. The underlying performance history hasn't gone anywhere.
The business quality backs that up. ASML's Health Score of 8.6/10 sits in the top tier of all stocks Stoxcraft covers, driven by a net profit margin of nearly 30% and over $11.6B in operating cash flow over the last twelve months. Free cash flow per share of $23.24 puts it well ahead of every semiconductor equipment peer. You can explore how Stoxcraft calculates these scores if you want the full picture.
The risk profile: where ASML quietly separates itself
This is where the comparison sharpens. ASML's Risk Score is 4.9/10, and the direction matters: a higher Risk Score means more risk, not less. At 4.9, ASML sits in the lower-risk half of the entire Stoxcraft universe. Its beta of 1.39 and a max drawdown of just 6.65% over the past twelve months are genuinely contained for a semiconductor name.
Now look at the peers. KLA Corporation carries a Risk Score of 9.0/10, which places it among the most volatile stocks in the full database. Lam Research sits at 8.5/10. Applied Materials at 7.7/10. Every peer has outrun ASML over the past year. Every peer carries dramatically more downside exposure if the sector rotates or sentiment shifts.
ASML vs. KLA, Lam Research, and Applied Materials
The overall rating gap isn't random. ASML holds a 5-star rating. All three peers sit at 3.5 stars. That's the score system reflecting what the premium is paying for.
ASML Holding (ASML): Health Score 8.6 / Performance Score 8.6 / Risk Score 4.9 / ★★★★★
KLA Corporation (KLAC): Health Score 7.4 / Performance Score 9.5 / Risk Score 9.0 / ★★★⯪☆
Lam Research (LRCX): Health Score 8.6 / Performance Score 9.5 / Risk Score 8.5 / ★★★⯪☆
Applied Materials (AMAT): Health Score 8.8 / Performance Score 9.9 / Risk Score 7.7 / ★★★⯪☆
The peers have higher Performance Scores because their near-term stock gains have been sharper. The cost of that ride shows up in the Risk Score. Applied Materials is up +202% over a year and sits 19% below its 52-week high, with a beta of 1.57. Lam Research is up +247% and 21% off its high. KLA is up +150% and sits dramatically further below its pre-split adjusted high.
ASML is 11.2% below its 52-week high. The 5-star rating reflects the full trade-off: stronger fundamentals, lower volatility, and a business that generates genuine cash at scale. What it doesn't reflect is a stock that has sprinted hard in the near term.
The risks: China exposure and ASML's demand timing
China is a direct ceiling on ASML's business right now. US export restrictions block advanced EUV systems from reaching Chinese chipmakers, cutting off the highest-margin product line. ASML can still ship older deep ultraviolet (DUV) systems into China, but the EUV ceiling is real, and the €600M spread between the low and high end of Q2 guidance reflects it.
A guidance raise on Wednesday would be a meaningful signal that the China drag isn't getting worse. A downward revision would confirm the market's hesitation has a foundation.
The second issue is timing. ASML's EUV backlog skews toward 2025 and 2026 delivery windows, which means revenue recognition comes in lumps. Peers like Applied Materials and Lam Research run more diversified product lines across deposition, etch, and services, which generate a steadier earnings cadence quarter to quarter. That steadiness is partly why the market has rewarded them more recently.
According to Yahoo Finance's pre-earnings analysis, the consensus is watching whether ASML tightens its guidance range upward. If it does, the case for the premium gets cleaner fast.
ASML's Q2 verdict: the monopoly that needs to prove its timing
The data puts ASML in a clear category. It's the highest-quality business in this peer group, with the best overall rating, the strongest risk-adjusted profile, and cash generation none of its peers match. The score pattern is a Quality Compounder: strong fundamentals, contained volatility, and a performance record that holds up across longer timeframes, even when near-term momentum is running somewhere else.
The entry signal is currently Buy. The RSI sits at 50, technically neutral. Analyst price target of $1,984 implies roughly 12% upside from the current $1,775. ASML is 11.2% below its 52-week high, closer to its lows than its high.
Three numbers to watch Wednesday: full-year guidance versus the current €36-40B range, China revenue as a share of the mix, and EUV backlog for 2027 delivery. The monopoly is intact. The question is whether Wednesday's numbers close the timing gap with peers or push it further out. Not yet settled. But Wednesday will say a lot.
Standard Stoxcraft financial disclaimer. This is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
