Ulta Beauty (ULTA) reports Q2 earnings Thursday after the close. The stock already climbed 13% this month heading into the print. The scores think that rally has real support behind it.
Ulta's earnings setup in numbers
Wall Street expects EPS of $6.16 for Q2, up 6.7% year over year. That bar looks easy to clear. Last quarter, Ulta beat it big, posting $7.74 per share against a $6.90 estimate.
Revenue rose 11.1% to $3.16B, and comparable sales grew 5.3%. The average price target sits at $623.54, well above Wednesday's close.
What the scores say about ULTA
The Health Score measures balance sheet strength and cash generation against sector peers. Ulta's reading of 8.5 out of 10 ranks among the strongest in specialty retail. Free cash flow and margins carry that number.
The Performance Score measures price gains against the rest of the Stoxcraft universe. Ulta's reading of 4.2 is weaker. The stock has lagged the market over the past year, even with this month's bounce.
The Risk Score reads 5.1. That's moderate on a scale where higher always means more risk. The trend signal points up, and the entry signal reads Buy.
The Overall Rating holds at three and a half stars.
ULTA vs. its sector
Ulta's fundamentals outrank most of specialty retail right now. The Health Score of 8.5 sits well above the sector's typical range. Performance tells a different story.
Many peers in Consumer Discretionary posted steadier gains over the past year while Ulta's stock treaded water.
The score pattern to watch
This looks like a Turnaround Candidate. Performance has been weak, but the trend signal is rising and the entry signal reads Buy. That combination shows up when a stock stops falling before the fundamentals show why.
Thursday's report either confirms the turn or exposes it as a short squeeze.
Ulta's real test starts Thursday night
The scores already lean bullish going in. Health is strong. The trend is climbing, and the entry signal reads Buy.
None of that survives a weak guide. If margins hold and comps stay near 5%, the Performance Score has room to catch up fast.
Stoxcraft content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Stoxcraft scores are data-driven indicators, not buy or sell recommendations. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
