Chip stocks just went through one of their roughest stretches in years. Nearly every semiconductor name got hit. But three stocks broke away from the pack. None of them did it by luck. Two others beat earnings and still crashed. This is what moved each stock, one by one.
Chip stocks just posted their worst month in over a year
Semiconductors had a monster run through the first half of 2026. Then July arrived, and the mood flipped. AI capex worries piled up. The Fed turned more hawkish, and a report on China's chipmaking progress added to the pressure.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell as much as 5.7% in a single session. That pushed the drop from the late June peak past 20%. That's the threshold for a bear market. Other trackers put the monthly slide closer to 18.2% for July alone, depending on the window measured.
Inside the Stoxcraft universe, the picture is just as rough.
- 48 of 78 semiconductor stocks are down more than 20% over the past month.
- The sector's average 1 month return sits at negative 24.2%.
- Only 3 stocks in the entire group are green.
Those 3 survivors are worth a close look. So are the 2 stocks that beat earnings and still got crushed anyway.
The three semiconductor stocks that turned green
None of the 3 green names climbed because the sector was strong. Each one had its own reason to move.
TE Connectivity (TEL) posted a record quarter
TE Connectivity (TEL) reported fiscal third quarter results on July 22. Adjusted earnings came in at $2.94 a share, ahead of the $2.84 expected. Revenue hit $5.16 billion, up 14% from a year earlier.
Orders jumped 27% year over year to $5.7 billion. AI and data center demand drove most of that growth. Management also raised guidance for the next quarter. Shares are still up 2% for the month. Small move, real signal.
TE Connectivity's Health Score sits at 7.7. Its Piotroski Score of 8 out of 9 points to a clean balance sheet. Its Risk Score is 4.2, well below most semiconductor peers. A score this low means less volatility than most stocks Stoxcraft tracks, not more.
Broadcom (AVGO) signed a $200 billion AI chip deal with Samsung
Broadcom (AVGO) announced a supply deal with Samsung worth more than $200 billion through 2030. It covers advanced chip manufacturing, memory, and packaging for AI infrastructure. Broadcom's AI semiconductor bookings have already topped $30 billion. Next quarter's AI revenue guidance implies growth of more than 200% year over year.
The market appears to be treating Broadcom's custom chip business differently. It's not lumped in with the GPU demand anxiety hitting other AI names. Investors are pricing that gap in real time. Broadcom's Performance Score of 8.2 ranks it among the strongest performers in the Stoxcraft universe. Its Health Score of 7.8 backs up the fundamentals behind the move.
Impinj (PI) beat earnings, but the risk profile looks different
Impinj (PI) posted second quarter results on July 29 that beat on both lines. Adjusted earnings were $0.86 a share against a $0.80 estimate. Revenue rose 10.7% to $108.4 million.
Shares jumped roughly 9% combined across regular trading and after hours. The stock is up close to 6% for the month. This is a fresh earnings pop, not a longer run that predates the sell-off.
Impinj's Risk Score sits at 8.5, well above TE Connectivity's and Broadcom's. Its Health Score is just 2.2. Green, but riskier. Its overall profile still carries meaningfully more risk than the sector's other survivors.
Two chip stocks that beat earnings and still got punished
Not every earnings beat this month led to gains. Two stocks did everything right on paper and still got hammered.
MaxLinear (MXL) crashed even after a strong beat
MaxLinear (MXL) reported second quarter revenue of $168.8 million on July 23, up 55% year over year. Guidance for the third quarter came in well above what analysts expected. The stock still fell as much as 22% right after the print. It kept sliding from there.
MaxLinear is down 47.8% over the past month, the steepest drop in the sector. Its beta sits at 3.93, more than triple the broader market. Its 90 day standard deviation is among the highest Stoxcraft tracks. A drawdown like this often follows a stock that ran too far, too fast. MaxLinear had gained more than 300% before the reversal.
Amkor Technology (AMKR) fell on guidance, not results
Amkor Technology (AMKR) posted a record second quarter on July 27. Revenue reached $1.9 billion, up 26% year over year. Earnings of $0.70 a share beat estimates by 49%. The company also announced a $1.5 billion partnership with Nvidia. It signed a 10 year packaging deal with TSMC too.
None of that stopped the stock from falling 42.2% over the month. Beat the quarter, missed the guide. Amkor's outlook for the third quarter came in just under what Wall Street modeled. Investors punished the miss regardless of how strong the quarter had been.
Why the calmer stocks held up better this month
The pattern across all 5 stocks is not about who beat or missed earnings. Every single one of them beat expectations. The real dividing line was each stock's Risk Score going in.
TE Connectivity and Broadcom both carry Risk Scores well below the sector norm, at 4.2 and 6.3. MaxLinear and Amkor sit near 10, among the highest readings Stoxcraft records. Impinj lands in between, closer to the high risk end at 8.5. No free lunch here.
That doesn't mean the Risk Score caused this month's price moves. Score isn't fate. Each stock had its own specific catalyst behind the swing. But it helps explain why some names had more room to fall once sentiment turned.
Want to screen for calmer names in any sector? The Stoxcraft Screener lets you filter directly by risk level. You can read more about how Stoxcraft calculates its scores here.
This isn't the first sell-off that has looked unusual on the surface. We broke down a similar pattern in why this sell-off feels different.
What the market says
The China chip tool report isn't the whole story here. Part of this month's drop came from forced selling, not fresh bearish conviction.
A Wall Street Journal report on a planned $250 billion Nvidia financing guarantee for OpenAI added extra noise to an already jumpy market this week. On top of that, one closely watched AI hedge fund had to unwind a large stake in South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix to meet a margin call, and the stock briefly dropped as much as 20% despite strong earnings behind it.
Analyst Jane Sydenham told the BBC the pullback followed months of outsized gains, meaning expectations were stretched heading in. South Korean retail investors buying chip names on margin made the drop sharper once it started. When the leveraged positions got cleared, South Korea's KOSPI swung almost 18% higher the very next day.
Consorsbank analyst Jochen Stanzl pointed to that unwind as a sign the correction has been as much about positioning as fundamentals. South Korean regulators have already paused new leveraged ETF listings to cool the swings down.
Translation for chip stock holders: some of July's damage wasn't about weaker AI demand. It was leveraged bets unwinding fast, and that kind of selling doesn't always track what's actually happening at the companies underneath.
What the chip sell-off means for investors watching semiconductors
A sector down 24% on average in a month is not small. But this wasn't a story where every stock fell together. TE Connectivity (TEL), Broadcom (AVGO), and Impinj (PI) each had a distinct, dated catalyst behind their gains.
Same for the losers. MaxLinear (MXL) and Amkor (AMKR) show that a strong quarter alone isn't always enough. Guidance can undo a beat. A stock that ran too hot can fall hard regardless. The scores didn't predict July's headlines. But they help explain which stocks had less cushion when the mood shifted.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
