Stock | Health | Performance | Risk | Trend | Entry Signal | Overall Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rocket Lab (RKLB) | 1.7/10 | 8.1/10 | 10.0/10 (high risk) | Falling ▼▼ | Strong Sell | ★★☆☆☆ |
Planet Labs (PL) | 1.8/10 | 7.9/10 | 10.0/10 (high risk) | Falling ▼▼ | Strong Sell | ★★☆☆☆ |
Kratos Defense (KTOS) | 2.5/10 | 5.6/10 | 8.4/10 (high risk) | Dipping ▼ | Strong Sell | ★★☆☆☆ |
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) | 1.5/10 | 7.3/10 | 10.0/10 (high risk) | Falling ▼▼ | Strong Sell | ★★☆☆☆ |
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) | 1.0/10 | 4.1/10 | 10.0/10 (high risk) | Falling ▼▼ | Strong Sell | ★☆☆☆☆ |
SpaceX (SPCX) | 1.5/10 | 0.0/10 | 6.6/10 (elevated risk) | Falling ▼▼ | Strong Sell | ⯪☆☆☆☆ |
Space stocks just had their roughest month since the sector's IPO wave began. Every major name fell together in July, but the Stoxcraft scores show the group was never as uniform as the price charts suggest. Defense budget uncertainty and a maxed-out risk profile across the board pulled the whole sector down. Underneath that, three names look fundamentally sound. Three don't.
Sector snapshot: a group that's risky even by growth-stock standards
Across the six space names Stoxcraft tracks, the average Health Score sits at just 1.7 out of 10, far below the market's 5.0 median. None of these companies is profitable yet. The average Performance Score comes in at 5.5, barely above median, dragged down by SpaceX's short and still-forming price history since its June IPO.
Risk is where this sector stands apart. The group's average Risk Score is 9.2 out of 10, nearly double the universe median of 5.0. That's one of the highest risk readings of any group Stoxcraft tracks right now. The average Overall Rating lands at 1.6 stars, well below the 3-star midpoint most stocks cluster around.
The three space stocks with the strongest combined scores right now
Ranked on Health, Performance, inverted Risk, and Overall Rating together, three names come out ahead of the rest.
Rocket Lab (RKLB): the broadest business in the group
Rocket Lab tops the group. Its Performance Score of 8.1 out of 10 ranks in the upper third of the aerospace and defense industry, and its business spans launch, satellite systems, and defense work, the broadest base of any name here.
That breadth showed up in July. Rocket Lab landed a $266 million multi-launch contract with the U.S. Space Force, yet the stock still fell 35% in a month. Its Health Score of 1.7 remains among the dozen weakest in its industry, and its Risk Score sits at the maximum 10 out of 10. The scores say the drop was a valuation reset, not a business breakdown.
Planet Labs (PL): recurring revenue keeps the backlog growing
Planet Labs scores a close second, Performance at 7.9, also upper third of the same industry, built on a subscription-style data business rather than one-off missions.
The company's own results back that up. Planet posted record quarterly revenue with backlog up sharply year over year, and in June it landed new National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency contract extensions. None of that stopped the stock from falling roughly 35% in a month. Like Rocket Lab, Planet Labs carries a maxed-out Risk Score of 10 out of 10 and a Health Score of 1.8.
Kratos Defense (KTOS): the calmest stock in the group
Kratos rounds out the top three, not on Performance, its 5.6 score is the lowest of the trio, but on Risk. Its Risk Score of 8.4 is meaningfully below the rest of the sector, and its Health Score of 2.5 is the strongest in the group.
Kratos entered July with a $1.573 billion backlog already booked, mostly tied to defense programs rather than one-off launches. That steadier revenue base is likely why the stock fell just 16% in a month, the smallest drop of any name here.
Where the score picture is deteriorating fastest
The bottom three tell a different story, and each one for a different reason.
AST SpaceMobile's problem is timing, not fundamentals. The company delayed its commercial direct-to-device launch to early 2027 after a launch vehicle setback, and ASTS dropped 31% in a month despite scoring 7.3 on Performance, upper half of the telecom services industry. Its Health Score of 1.5 and maxed Risk Score of 10 meant the valuation had little room for a delay of any kind.
Intuitive Machines has the weakest profile in the sector on almost every measure. LUNR's Health Score of 1.0 is one of the four lowest in the entire aerospace and defense industry, and its Performance Score of 4.1 is roughly half of Rocket Lab's. NASA still handed the company a lunar delivery mission award in late June, but the win covered a small slice of projected revenue and didn't stop the stock from falling 37%, the steepest drop of the group.
SpaceX is the outlier. Its Performance Score sits at 0.0, reflecting a short and negative return history since its June IPO, but its Risk Score of 6.6 is the lowest in the sector. Yahoo Finance pegs SpaceX's price-to-book ratio at 43.3 times, against a telecom industry average of 1.5. That gap is what a correction targets first.
Why defense budget uncertainty and a single IPO moved the whole sector
Since SpaceX's June IPO, the rest of the space sector has started trading more in step with it. When SpaceX corrected in July, Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Planet Labs, and Intuitive Machines all came under pressure too, even where the underlying business had barely changed.
A large share of this sector depends directly or indirectly on U.S. defense and government contracts. Uncertainty around the federal defense budget, combined with midterm election positioning, weighed on the whole group at once. Names most reliant on future contract wins, rather than backlog already booked, felt that pressure hardest.
Valuations amplified the move. Several of these stocks had run up through May and June on revenue multiples that were high even for fast-growing tech names. After months of gains, many investors were sitting on large unrealized profits. Small negative catalysts were enough to trigger a broad, indiscriminate sell-off across the entire group.
What moves the space trade next
SpaceX reports earnings Tuesday, August 4. As the sector's new bellwether, that report is the next real test of sentiment for the rest of the group.
AST SpaceMobile's delayed BlueBird satellites are now scheduled to launch August 5, a concrete date that could either confirm the setback or start rebuilding confidence. Watch whether Rocket Lab and Planet Labs keep landing contracts through the back half of the year. If they do, this correction starts to look like exactly what the scores already suggest: a valuation reset, not a breakdown.
Stoxcraft scores are quantitative indicators, not investment advice. Every stock in this group carries a maximum or near-maximum Risk Score. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
