Oracle filed its FY26 10-K on June 18, 2026, closing the books on the company's biggest year ever. Revenue hit $67.4B, cloud is now more than half of all sales, and the AI contract backlog has ballooned to $638B. The real question isn't whether Oracle is growing. It's how long the market will be patient with the price tag attached to that growth.
Oracle's FY26 results in numbers
Oracle's Q4 delivered total revenue of $19.2B, up 21% year over year. Cloud revenues jumped 47% to $9.9B in the quarter, led by 93% growth in cloud infrastructure. For the full fiscal year, total revenue came in at $67.4B, up 17%.
Operating cash flow for FY26 reached $32B, up 54% year over year. But Oracle also reported negative free cash flow of $23.7B, driven by $55.7B in capital expenditure. The company is spending to build at a speed that outpaces what it generates today.
Remaining performance obligations reached $638B, up 363%, driven by large AI-related cloud contracts. That's locked-in future revenue and the number bulls cite as proof the strategy is working.
Three core scores
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Metrics feed into the three Core Scores: Health, Performance, and Risk
What the Stoxcraft scores say about ORCL
Oracle's score profile is split in a way that's actually quite rare. Long-term price performance is top-tier. The fundamental picture is weighed down by one of the heaviest debt loads in enterprise software. Here's how each dimension breaks down.
Health score: strong margins, heavy debt
Oracle holds a Health Score of 5.4/10, which sits below the Software Infrastructure sector median. The core drag is straightforward: Oracle carries $156B in total debt against $31.9B in cash, a net debt position of roughly $124B. Interest expense alone hit $4.6B in FY26.
That said, Oracle's operating margins tell a different story. Gross margin is 65.8% and operating margin is 33.3%. These are not the numbers of a distressed company. The health score isn't flagging weakness in the business. It's flagging a company that's deliberately borrowed to fund a structural shift, and the balance sheet now reflects that bet in full.
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Risk score: what a 1.65 beta means in practice
The Risk Score of 6.8/10 signals above-average risk. On this metric specifically, a higher number means more risk, not less. Oracle's beta sits at 1.65, meaning the stock amplifies market moves by roughly 65% in both directions. A 10% market rally could translate to a 16% gain for ORCL. A 10% selloff could mean more than 16% downside.
The drawdown component adds further weight. ORCL currently sits about 18% below its 52-week high. That gap feeds directly into the risk reading.
Performance score: long record, short-term pain
Oracle's Performance Score of 7.1/10 puts it in the top 25% of the Stoxcraft universe. The 3-year and 5-year relative returns are the foundation of that score. Over the past five years, ORCL has significantly outpaced both the S&P 500 and the average software peer, building a track record that long-term holders have been rewarded for.
The shorter-term picture is different. ORCL fell more than 11% on June 11 following the earnings release, even as cloud infrastructure posted 93% growth. The stock has dropped roughly 18% over the past 52 weeks. The market wasn't reacting to the past year. It was repricing based on what the next few years of capital expenditure look like.
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ORCL vs. its sector
Most Software Infrastructure peers carry far less debt relative to operating cash flow, which lifts their health scores. But few can point to $638B in locked-in future revenue or a cloud infrastructure unit growing at 93% in a single quarter. Oracle's profile sits below the sector average on health and risk, and above it on long-term performance. That's an unusual combination, and it's the direct result of a strategic trade-off, not an operational failure.
The score pattern to watch
Oracle fits the Momentum Play archetype: above-average long-term performance, elevated risk, and leverage that amplifies the upside and downside simultaneously. What makes this case unusual is the logic underneath. The debt isn't from financial distress. It's from deliberate infrastructure investment with a $638B backlog acting as collateral.
FY27 guidance calls for $90B in revenue, up 34%, with non-GAAP EPS of $8.05. If those numbers hold, the cash flow trajectory changes meaningfully. If they slip, the balance sheet story gets louder fast.
ORCL in 2026: a bet on a $638B AI backlog
Oracle's 3.5-star overall rating reflects exactly where the stock sits. The long-term track record and the scale of its AI commitments argue for more. The debt load and negative free cash flow pull it back.
The trend is pointing down right now, with MACD negative and momentum clearly not with the bulls short-term. But the entry signal reads Buy, backed by analyst consensus pointing to roughly 39% upside from current levels. For patient investors who believe the $638B backlog converts at the pace Oracle is guiding, the 18% pullback from the high creates a setup worth watching.
Q1 FY27 cloud growth is guided at 58% to 64%. That's the number that decides whether the 3.5-star rating moves up or the risk reading takes over the narrative.
