Score card block
Stock | Health Score | Performance Score | Risk Score | Overall Rating | Entry Signal | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Microsoft (MSFT) | 9.1/10 | 8.4/10 | 2.8/10 (low risk) | 5 stars | Buy | Climbing ▲▲ |
Visa (V) | 8.6/10 | 7.8/10 | 2.5/10 (low risk) | 5 stars | Buy | Climbing ▲▲ |
Mastercard (MA) | 8.3/10 | 7.5/10 | 2.9/10 (low risk) | 4.5 stars | Buy | Rising ▲ |
Progressive Corp (PGR) | 7.8/10 | 8.1/10 | 2.2/10 (low risk) | 4.5 stars | Buy | Climbing ▲▲ |
S&P Global (SPGI) | 7.6/10 | 7.2/10 | 2.6/10 (low risk) | 4 stars | Strong Buy | Rising ▲ |
Risk Score uses inverse logic: a lower number means less risk. All five stocks sit below 3.0/10, placing them in the lowest-volatility tier across the full Stoxcraft universe.
Everyone wants to know why Berkshire Hathaway isn't spending its $397B. The more useful question is which stocks would actually pass if it did.
Berkshire ended Q1 2026 with a record $397.4B in cash and short-term Treasury bills. According to its Q1 2026 10-Q filing with the SEC, the company sold $24.1B in equities during the quarter while buying only $15.9B, extending a net-selling streak that has now run for over three years. The cash pile isn't a crash signal. It's a price signal. Almost nothing in the market currently clears Berkshire's bar. So what does?
Why $397B is sitting in Treasury bills
The number is striking. Berkshire's quarterly filing shows the pile generates roughly $12B in annualized interest income from Treasury bills alone, which meaningfully reduces the opportunity cost of waiting. That context matters. Berkshire isn't bleeding while it waits. It's earning.
The more relevant constraint is structural. Berkshire can't buy index funds or build $500M positions. The mandate is to acquire entire businesses or substantial equity stakes at prices that can be defended publicly. By that standard, the menu of available opportunities is nearly empty at current valuations. Individual investors face no such constraint. A stock that's too small for Berkshire to move the needle on is perfectly accessible at any brokerage account.
The screen: Quality Compounder filters applied to 3,900 stocks
Buffett's criteria aren't complicated. Durable competitive advantages. High returns on capital. Low debt. Predictable cash flow. The Stoxcraft scoring system captures the fundamental side of that through the Health Score, and the stability side through the Risk Score.
The screen applied these five filters simultaneously across the full universe:
Filter | Threshold |
|---|---|
Health Score | Above 7.0/10 |
Risk Score | Below 3.5/10 (lower = less risk) |
Entry signal | Buy or Strong Buy |
Performance Score | Above 6.0/10 |
Overall rating | 4 stars or higher |
Fewer than 60 stocks in the universe cleared all five at once. Here are the five that represent the clearest Quality Compounder profiles among them.
The five stocks that passed
These names combine fundamental strength, low volatility, and a favorable entry setup. That combination is rare when markets are trading near all-time highs. Each profile below includes a widget embed marker for the CMS team.
Microsoft (MSFT): the highest Health Score in the IT sector
Microsoft (MSFT) earns a Health Score of 9.1/10. That places it in the top 3% of all 3,900 stocks tracked, not just among technology peers. The score is anchored by extraordinary free cash flow generation and one of the widest net profit margins in the IT sector.
The Risk Score of 2.8/10 means MSFT carries less price risk than roughly 75% of all stocks in the database. A drawdown of under 12% over the trailing 12 months, combined with a low beta, makes this one of the most stable large-cap tech names in the universe. The 5-star overall rating reflects a stock where fundamental strength, multi-year outperformance, and stability all point the same direction simultaneously. The current entry signal reads Buy, with the RSI near neutral and analyst consensus firmly positive.
Visa (V): payment infrastructure with a near-perfect stability profile
Visa (V) scores 8.6/10 on Health, placing it among the top 10 stocks in the financial services sector. The business carries almost no credit risk of its own. It processes trillions in payments annually and collects fees on both sides of every transaction. That structure produces cash flow metrics among the cleanest in the Stoxcraft universe.
The Risk Score of 2.5/10 makes it one of the least volatile large-cap financials in the database. A 5-star overall rating reflects exactly the kind of quality compounder profile that passes a Buffett-style filter. Berkshire already holds a Visa position. The entry signal currently reads Buy, supported by strong analyst consensus and meaningful price upside implied by current price targets.
Mastercard (MA): the closest peer, with a slightly lower near-term setup
Mastercard (MA) scores 8.3/10 on Health and holds 4.5 stars overall. The business model is structurally identical to Visa's. The score gap reflects marginally higher short-term volatility and a slightly lower Performance Score, driven by underperformance at shorter time horizons. The fundamental thesis is identical: asset-light payment infrastructure with expanding margins and strong cash generation across economic cycles. Entry signal reads Buy. Both Visa and Mastercard are confirmed Berkshire portfolio holdings.
Progressive Corp (PGR): the insurance compounder with the lowest risk reading
Progressive (PGR) earns a Health Score of 7.8/10 within the financial services sector. That reflects consistently strong underwriting margins and above-sector profitability over multiple periods. Its Performance Score of 8.1/10 places it in the top 20% of all 3,900 tracked stocks for price returns across all measured time horizons.
The Risk Score of 2.2/10 is the lowest among the five names in this screen. It carries less price risk than roughly 80% of all stocks in the universe. Berkshire's own insurance businesses are direct competitors to Progressive. That makes the score profile interesting from a different angle. Progressive scores the way a well-run Berkshire insurance subsidiary would score if it were listed as a standalone public company.
S&P Global (SPGI): the only Strong Buy entry signal in this group
S&P Global (SPGI) carries the cleanest near-term technical setup of the five. The RSI sits near 50, the stock trades below its 52-week high, and analyst consensus is strongly positive with an average price target well above current levels. All three components that feed the entry signal are pulling in the same direction. That alignment is why SPGI is the only name in this screen carrying a Strong Buy signal right now.
Health Score of 7.6/10 reflects high-quality recurring revenue from credit ratings, data analytics, and indices. Risk Score of 2.6/10 keeps it in the lowest volatility tier. The 4-star overall rating sits just below the 5-star threshold, held back by a Performance Score that trails the very top universe names over longer time horizons. Berkshire does not currently hold a position in SPGI, based on its latest 13F filing.
How the screen compares to what Berkshire actually owns
The contrast between the screen output and Berkshire's actual portfolio tells you something useful. Here is the side-by-side:
Stock | In Berkshire Portfolio? | Stoxcraft Overall Rating | Entry Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
Microsoft (MSFT) | No | 5 stars | Buy |
Visa (V) | Yes | 5 stars | Buy |
Mastercard (MA) | Yes | 4.5 stars | Buy |
Progressive Corp (PGR) | No | 4.5 stars | Buy |
S&P Global (SPGI) | No | 4 stars | Strong Buy |
Apple (AAPL) | Yes (largest position) | Check AAPL page | |
American Express (AXP) | Yes | Check AXP page | |
Coca-Cola (KO) | Yes | Check KO page |
Berkshire holds the two payment networks and Apple, but not Microsoft, Progressive, or S&P Global. The absences are mostly explained by size constraints, not quality concerns. Microsoft and S&P Global are simply not large enough relative to Berkshire's capital base for a meaningful position to move the needle. Progressive is a direct competitor to its own insurance operations.
Individual investors face none of those constraints.
Why Berkshire's cash pile doesn't invalidate the screen
The $397B number generates enormous narrative energy. Every quarter without a major acquisition gets framed as a warning. That framing misunderstands the mechanics. Berkshire sold a net $172.9B in equities between 2022 and 2024. It has been a net seller for twelve consecutive quarters. That is a price judgment, not a quality judgment on every stock in the market.
The five names in this screen are not cheap in absolute terms. But they clear a quality and stability bar that is genuinely rare. Fewer than 60 stocks in a universe of 3,900 hold 4 stars or higher right now. That's a concentration of quality at the top of the distribution that doesn't appear often.
The Q2 2026 13F filing from Berkshire lands in August. That will be the first filing that fully reflects Abel's capital allocation decisions independent of the transition period. If Berkshire deploys a significant amount into any single name, that is the clearest possible signal that the quality-and-price bar has finally been cleared.
What resolves the Berkshire waiting game
Three things would shift the screen results quickly.
A meaningful market correction would push Risk Scores higher across the board. Entry signals would improve across more names. The Buy list would get longer and the score bar easier to clear at lower prices. Second, any of the five stocks missing earnings guidance would see its Health Score refresh downward. Third, a Berkshire acquisition announcement in any of these sectors would resolve the valuation question directly and move the market faster than any score update could.
Until one of those three things happens, the screen above is the most honest answer to the question the market keeps asking. The quality is there. The size constraint isn't going away. And the $12B in annual Treasury income means Berkshire is in no hurry.
