Custom formulas power the Stoxcraft system
KLA Corporation (KLAC) reports fiscal Q4 results Tuesday, July 28, after the close. The stock is down 15% in a month and still up 128% for the year. Six weeks after a 10-for-1 split, the fundamentals get tested again.
KLA's Q4 setup and split recap in numbers
Management guided Q4 revenue to $3.575B, give or take $200M. Wall Street sits at $3.61B, or growth of about 14% year over year. Consensus EPS is $1.00, up roughly 6% from a year ago.
KLA has beaten consensus in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise near 4%. Higher DRAM input costs are expected to shave about 100 basis points off the gross margin midpoint. Management guided gross margin to 60.75% to 62.75% for the quarter.
The split itself changed nothing about the business. KLA paired it with a 21% dividend increase and a $7B buyback authorization, both approved in May. We broke down the mechanics in our KLAC split analysis.
What the readings show about KLAC before the print
Tuesday brings a three-way disagreement in the readings. Fundamental quality, long-run price performance and short-term fragility all point in different directions. Every reading comes from the same scoring framework applied across 3,900 stocks.
KLA's fundamentals rank solid, not elite
The Health Score measures fundamental quality relative to sector peers. It covers cash flow, margins, and balance sheet strength. KLA's 7.4 ranks 18th on the platform, behind peers like Applied Materials (AMAT) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM).
Profitability carries it. A net profit margin near 36% is the standout. The balance sheet pulls back: $6.09B in debt against $4.69B of equity.
KLAC's price record sits in the top 15% of chip stocks
The Performance Score tracks relative price returns across multiple time horizons versus the full universe. KLA's 9.2 ranks 11th of roughly 78 semiconductor names tracked. That's the top 15% of its industry and the top decile of the full universe.
KLAC is up 128% over one year and 561% over five. The S&P 500 gained roughly 20% over the same 12 months.
KLAC's volatility is the weak spot
KLA's volatility profile sits in the moderate-to-elevated range for semiconductors. A beta of 1.41 means it amplifies market moves by roughly 1.4x. Its 12-month max drawdown of 11.89% is well below the sector median.
Recent price action is the driver. KLAC fell 15% in a month.
The entry signal reads Hold. RSI, a momentum indicator ranging from 0 to 100, sits at 44, which is neutral. The average analyst target of $225.09 is 7% above Friday's close.
KLAC vs. the semiconductor group
KLAC fits the semiconductor shape almost exactly: strong price record, elevated risk, solid but not elite fundamentals. Its price performance ranks top-decile, but its risk reading sits mid-pack.
Where it differs is balance. It ranks better on price performance than on fundamentals. That gap is what earnings either validates or closes.
The pattern behind KLAC's current profile
KLAC looks like a Momentum Play that has lost its momentum leg. Strong long-run performance, elevated risk, but a short-term trend that has rolled over.
That combination doesn't hold for long. Tuesday's report answers it.
What Tuesday's print decides for KLAC
Guidance matters more than the beat here. KLA has beaten before and still sold off the next day. Watch the gross margin line for the DRAM cost drag management already flagged.
Clean margins plus revenue above $3.61B would give the trend signal a reason to turn. Guidance above $3.7B would be the clearest signal the process-control cycle is still accelerating.
Weak margins, and the overall score profile has more room to fall than rise. Our earlier look at KLA's process-control moat covers the longer thesis. Track all upcoming earnings dates on the Stoxcraft earnings calendar.
